The “time to drop” estimator is a metric that predicts the time left on a game before it becomes less enjoyable and players stop playing. It can be used as an indicator for developers, publishers, and other stakeholders in the gaming industry.
The diablo 2 1.09 drop calculator is a tool that lets players create their own time to drop estimator. This tool allows players to input the current character level and how many hours they have played, and it will provide an estimate of when they should stop playing.
TLDR: A d2 time to drop estimate would be a fantastic and relatively simple addition to a drop odds calculator. Could someone who is acquainted with the d2 drop calculators assist me in putting one together? Let’s create a final calculator where players can enter their character details, run location, and speed, and the calculator will provide them with approximate time range estimations for locating any object.
Hello there, diablos. I’m a single player who’s interested in estimating how long it will take for an item to drop. The drop procedure that the game performs every time a monster is slain or a chest is opened seems to have been duplicated by diablo 2 theorists.
Here’s an example. This is ideal for mephisto runs, for example. Hell mephisto has a 1/780 chance of dropping a unique shako for players with 1,300 mf. You may then compute the probability that he will drop it after x runs, or the number of runs after which he will have a 50% chance of dropping at least one shako. Multiply that number of runs by the time it takes you to complete each one, and you’ll have some estimations for the average length of time it takes to see a particular item in mephisto runs.
With a few more intermediary stages added in, we have a “time to drop” estimate for the most relevant zones for the holy grail (or even simply those searching for items like Tal’s armor) where you must run diablo, baal, or, more likely, ancient tunnels. The similar concept may be used to LK runs. Of course, it’s impossible to predict how long anything will take to fall. This is simply a test to see how one in a million drop chances play out when the amount of monsters and champion packs killed each run is taken into account.
Here are some of the findings from my scribbled sheet.
Assume you run ancient tunnels on p1 at 300 mf in 1:30 seconds each run, killing 60 ordinary or minion monsters, 3 unique mobs, and 12 champions on average per run. You’d have a 25% chance of dropping Tal’s armor after 10 hours of this. You’d have a 50% chance in 24 hours. You’d have a 75% chance of seeing it if you farmed for 48 hours straight.
These figures strike me as low (I’d expect to see a Tal’s armor after spending more time in old tunnels). Perhaps my calculations are incorrect. I’m not sure whether the odds of producing a unique pack vs. champion pack are 50/50, as I assume. My mob numbers and time were rapidly calculated based on personal experience and a review of some of mrllama’s holy grail broadcasts. Of again, it’s a lot simpler to say “ran old tunnels for 48 hours” than it is to really do it at your top pace, so they may be correct.
I also did some math using runes. It’s well known that doing 60 mob kill ancient tunnels runs on player 1 is a poor method to get runes. That is reflected in the numbers. If you ran 52,000 times, you’d have a 75% chance of seeing a Jah (or 1300 hours straight). With some more realistic clear numbers (100 monsters destroyed along with the champion packs in players 7 over the length of 2.5 minutes each run), you only need 20,000 runs or 830 hours to have a 75% chance of seeing one.
I chose Jah because it is one level higher than Ber (though, to my surprise, I got worse numbers when looking for Ber drop chances for ancient tunnels on silospen calc), and enigma is probably the most important runeword to make if you don’t want to go insane on a single player holy grail run, because it opens up so many other viable mf builds. Enigma can be made from LK runs (you must cube up to jah, but I think it is still the best farming location for that aim).
So, how long should you anticipate to spend looking for a single ber rune in lower Kurast? After 4300 runs (18 hours @ 15 seconds each run @ players 3), I think you’ll have a 50% chance of having a ber if you’re willing to spend every lo and sur to cube up toward ber. I’m not so confident about this math. Notes on how I obtained it may be found on the sheet.
Also, I’m not sure how accurate the techniques I used to compute these odds of dropping on a run are, so any comment on them would be appreciated.
The ultimate aim would be to provide an interface that allows the user to enter or choose the following: MF, player settings, area to mf, average run speed, kind of clear (amount of normal mobs slain in addition to elites), and goods sought. The result would be the number of runs and the amount of time it took to get to the x percent probability of spotting the item.
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The path of diablo drop calculator is a tool that can help you estimate how much time it will take for your character to reach the next level.
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